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April 7, 2026
3 Stocks That Win From Both Tariff Refunds and the Iran Oil Shock
Wall Street has separated the Iran oil shock from the $166 billion tariff refund into two trades. The market is pricing energy names for oil and retail names for tariff windfalls, but three companies sit squarely at the intersection of both catalysts, and nobody is talking about the overlap.
April 7, 2026
5 Stocks That Win From $166 Billion in Tariff Refunds
CBP's tariff refund portal goes live around April 20, returning IEEPA duties to 330,000 importers. For five mid-cap importers with heavy China sourcing and minimal oil exposure, the estimated refund could represent roughly 5% to 15% of their entire market capitalization. I have not seen mainstream research that maps this.
April 6, 2026
Wall Street's Favorite Story About Layoffs and Stock Prices Is Wrong
The "year of efficiency" narrative says companies that fire workers get rewarded with higher stock prices. We ran the numbers across 34 of the largest tech companies and found the correlation between headcount cuts and stock returns is almost exactly zero. The market pays a product premium, not an efficiency premium.
April 6, 2026
Overpaid S&P 500 Ceos Underperform Cheap Ones Like Elon Musk by a Landslide
We matched five years of CEO compensation data against stock price returns for the 100 largest S&P 500 companies. The correlation between pay and performance is negative. The 20 lowest-paid CEOs delivered a 72% median return while the 22 highest-paid delivered 51%.
April 6, 2026
Stocks to Buy for Kevin Warsh’s Fed Regime
Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing on April 16 will force an answer to a question the market has been dodging for two months. Rate-sensitive sectors are priced for two contradictory Fed chairs simultaneously, and the 35-percentage-point YTD spread between energy stocks and homebuilders reveals the size of the bet.
April 6, 2026
Buyback Stocks Doubled Dividend Stocks the Last 10 Years
S&P 500 companies are on track to have spent roughly $1 trillion on share repurchases in 2025, and the performance gap between buyback-focused strategies and dividend-focused strategies has never been wider. The data across most standard timeframes makes the same argument, and it is not close.
April 5, 2026
Insiders Are Dumping Tech Stocks and Buying Energy
The insider buy/sell ratio collapsed to 0.24 in Q1 2026, near its all-time low. But the aggregate number hides a sector-level divergence that is the real signal. NVIDIA executives sold over $100 million in stock last month while ExxonMobil insiders bought.