476,000 people pay Tesla $99 a month for FSD. The math doesn't add up.

Tesla's bull case in 2026 rests on a software-margin re-rating.1 The actual FSD take-rate data, properly decomposed, shows software contributes roughly 23 basis points to consolidated gross margin in the median 2026 outcome and at most 51 basis points in a 95th-percentile scenario.16