Cerebras nearly doubled on its first day. Every IPO that ran that hot in the last decade had a 0% win rate over 6 months.

Cerebras priced its IPO at $185 and closed at $311. Across 15 hyped tech IPOs since 2015, the median name fell 30% from its first-month peak inside six months, and the most-hyped subset finished 54% lower with a zero-percent win rate.