ProCap Insights · April 8, 2026
These 2 stocks just struck gold with Anthropic
Anthropic's revenue run rate hit $30 billion, tripling in three months and surpassing OpenAI for the first time. The company simultaneously locked in the largest compute deal in AI history with two mega-cap stocks.
What to Know
- Broadcom (AVGO, $334) trades at 29.7x forward earnings with a consensus median target of $450, representing 33% upside. AI semiconductor revenue hit $8.4 billion in Q1 FY2026, management guided FY2026 AI revenue to $46 billion, and CEO Hock Tan confirmed "clear line of sight" to $100 billion by late 2027.
- Alphabet (GOOGL, $300) is the compute landlord collecting rent from both sides of the AI war. Google Cloud's backlog doubled to $240 billion, and Anthropic's 3.5-gigawatt TPU commitment flows directly into Google's infrastructure revenue starting 2027.
- Broadcom guided Q2 FY2026 AI revenue to $10.7 billion, a 140% year-over-year jump, and the Anthropic deal's 8-K filing conditions future capacity on "Anthropic's continued commercial success," making the next 60 days of earnings the key catalyst window.
Both Stocks Doubled in 12 Months but Still Trade Below Consensus Targets
Source: FMP via OpenBB. Returns measured April 7, 2025 to April 7, 2026.
WHAT HAPPENED
Anthropic disclosed on April 6 that its annualized revenue run rate surpassed $30 billion, up from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025. In the same announcement, the company revealed a new multi-gigawatt compute agreement with Google and Broadcom for approximately 3.5 gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity starting in 2027.1
The deal cements Broadcom as the fabricator of Google's custom TPU chips and Anthropic as Google Cloud's largest single AI infrastructure customer. Broadcom shares jumped 6.2% on the news.2
WHY THE MARKET IS UNDERPRICING BOTH STOCKS
The initial reaction treated this as an Anthropic story. AVGO rallied on the deal headline, and GOOGL barely moved. That framing misses the structural shift underneath.
Anthropic's revenue tripled in three months. No enterprise technology company has ever scaled this fast. The $30 billion run rate means Anthropic now generates more annualized revenue than OpenAI's last confirmed $25 billion run rate from February 2026.3 Over 1,000 enterprise customers each spend more than $1 million annually, a figure that doubled since February.4
Every dollar of that revenue requires massive compute. And that compute flows through two public companies.
For Broadcom, Anthropic committed $21 billion in late 2025 to custom Google TPU chip orders for ~1 million TPU v7p units, with deliveries already ramping in FY2026.5 The April 6 expansion adds 3.5 gigawatts of incremental capacity starting in 2027 with no disclosed dollar amount. Broadcom recognizes revenue on chip shipment, not ratably over the contract period.
Broadcom's Semiconductor Solutions segment revenue jumped from $11.1 billion in Q4 FY2025 to $12.5 billion in Q1 FY2026, with $8.4 billion of that from AI chips.6 Management guided total FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue to $46 billion across all customers. The stock trades at 29.7x forward earnings against a consensus median price target of $450, or 33% above the current $334 price.7
Broadcom AI Revenue Is Doubling Every Two Quarters
Source: Broadcom earnings releases, company guidance. Q2 FY2026 is management guidance.
For Alphabet, Google Cloud reported $17.7 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, growing 48% year-over-year.8 The cloud division's backlog more than doubled to $240 billion.9 Anthropic's 3.5-gigawatt TPU commitment represents one of the largest single-customer infrastructure deals in cloud computing history.
Google gets paid regardless of which AI model wins. Anthropic runs on Google TPUs, and Google builds its own Gemini models on those same TPUs. The compute landlord collects rent from every tenant.
GOOGL trades at 26.2x forward earnings with a consensus median target of $375, representing 25% upside from $300.10 The stock is down 3% year-to-date despite the strongest cloud growth in the company's history.
Anthropic Tripled Revenue and Overtook OpenAI in Three Months
Source: Anthropic company disclosures (Apr 2026, Feb 2026), SaaStr, Sacra, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar (Jan 2026). OpenAI Apr 2026 figure estimated; no confirmed update since Feb 2026.
THE REAL INVESTOR IMPLICATION
The AI infrastructure buildout just accelerated far beyond what Wall Street modeled six months ago. Broadcom's Q1 FY2026 AI revenue hit $8.4 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase. Management guided Q2 to $10.7 billion, a 140% jump.11 CEO Hock Tan said the company has "clear line of sight" to over $100 billion in annual AI chip revenue by late 2027 or early 2028.12
Goldman Sachs added AVGO to its US Conviction List in January 2026 with a $450 price target.13 Mizuho has the highest Street target at $480.14 Both targets assumed Anthropic's growth trajectory would be aggressive. The $30 billion run rate suggests those targets may still be conservative.
Alphabet's capex guidance for 2026 reaches up to $185 billion, the largest infrastructure investment in corporate history.15 That spending builds the TPU capacity Anthropic just committed to buying. Morgan Stanley projects Google Cloud will grow 44% year-over-year in 2026.16
THE COUNTER-ARGUMENT
The bull case for both names rests on Anthropic's continued commercial success, and the deal documents say so explicitly. Anthropic's consumption of expanded compute capacity is "dependent on Anthropic's continued commercial success," per the company's own announcement.17 A $30 billion run rate that depends on a startup maintaining triple-digit growth is not a certainty.
Anthropic burned through capital at an extraordinary rate. The company raised $30 billion in its February 2026 Series G at a $380 billion valuation, and the compute commitments imply spending will continue to outpace revenue for the foreseeable future.18 If enterprise AI adoption slows, or if a competing model erodes Claude's market share, Anthropic's compute consumption could fall well below the contracted 3.5 gigawatts.
For Broadcom specifically, single-customer concentration is a legitimate risk. The 8-K filing states that Anthropic's consumption of expanded capacity is "dependent on Anthropic's continued commercial success." Broadcom has six confirmed custom silicon customers (including OpenAI), but the Anthropic ramp is the largest near-term revenue driver, and Hock Tan declined to break out Anthropic-specific revenue on the Q1 earnings call.19
For Alphabet, the $185 billion capex number is staggering. CFO Anat Ashkenazi warned that depreciation expenses will rise sharply in Q1 2026, and if cloud revenue growth decelerates below the depreciation ramp, margins compress.20 The market punished GOOGL 7.5% after Q4 earnings despite the 48% cloud growth, precisely because investors fear the capex-to-revenue math.
The broader macro environment adds risk. With the Fed funds rate at elevated levels and trade policy uncertainty persisting, multiple expansion for growth stocks faces a ceiling. Both AVGO and GOOGL have doubled in twelve months, and valuation compression in a risk-off environment could erase the gap to consensus targets without any fundamental deterioration.
WHAT TO WATCH
Alphabet Q1 2026 earnings, expected late April, will be the first test of whether Google Cloud's 48% growth rate is accelerating or decelerating. Cloud revenue and backlog trajectory matter more than consolidated EPS.
Broadcom Q2 FY2026 earnings in early June will confirm whether the $10.7 billion AI revenue guide holds. Any upward revision signals the Anthropic ramp is ahead of schedule.
Anthropic's next capital raise or any disclosure on cash burn relative to the $30 billion run rate. If Anthropic needs another mega-round before year-end, it signals the compute spending is outrunning monetization.
CME FedWatch probabilities for the June and July FOMC meetings. Current market pricing shows an 83% probability the Fed holds at the May meeting, with June as the earliest credible cut window. Any shift toward cuts would be a tailwind for growth multiples on both names.
OpenAI's response. If OpenAI accelerates its own custom silicon program with Broadcom (the "sixth customer" announcement), AVGO's revenue diversification thesis strengthens and the single-customer risk diminishes.
The BOTTOM LINE
Anthropic's $30 billion run rate created a compute demand shock that flows directly into two public balance sheets. Broadcom (AVGO, $334) at 29.7x forward earnings with 33% upside to the $450 consensus median and Alphabet (GOOGL, $300) at 26.2x forward with 25% upside to $375 are the highest-conviction beneficiaries, though both depend on Anthropic sustaining a growth rate that has no historical precedent. The catalyst window is the next 60 days, with Alphabet earnings in late April and Broadcom earnings in early June.
Sources
1. Anthropic, "Expanding partnership with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation compute," April 6, 2026.
2. CNBC, "Broadcom agrees to expanded chip deals with Google, Anthropic," April 6, 2026.
3. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirmed $20B end-2025 run rate (Jan 2026); LinkedIn/AIM reported $25B as of Feb 2026. Anthropic surpassed this per Sherwood News, Bloomberg, April 2026.
4. Anthropic company disclosure, April 6, 2026.
5. RCRTech, "Anthropic's $21 billion chip deal with Broadcom," late 2025 commitment; AINvest confirmed as ~1M TPU v7p units. Broadcom 8-K (Apr 6, 2026) disclosed 3.5GW expansion starting 2027 with no dollar amount.
6. Broadcom Q1 FY2026 earnings release (Mar 4, 2026) and FMP/OpenBB Semiconductor Solutions segment data. AI revenue of $8.4B per earnings release; $46B FY2026 AI revenue guide per CEO Hock Tan.
7. FMP consensus estimates via OpenBB, as of April 7, 2026.
8. Alphabet Q4 2025 earnings release, February 5, 2026.
9. Investing.com, "Google Cloud Growth and $240B Backlog," 2026.
10. FMP consensus estimates via OpenBB, as of April 7, 2026.
11. Broadcom Q1 FY2026 earnings release, March 4, 2026.
12. CNBC, "Broadcom CEO Hock Tan sees AI chip revenue 'significantly' above $100 billion next year," March 4, 2026. Exact quote from Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript.
13. Goldman Sachs, AVGO added to US Conviction List, January 5, 2026.
14. Mizuho Securities, Vijay Rakesh, AVGO price target $480, January 9, 2026.
15. DCD, "Google estimates 2026 capex of up to $185bn," February 2026.
16. Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak, Google Cloud growth projection, 2026.
17. Anthropic company disclosure, April 6, 2026; Broadcom 8-K filing, April 6, 2026.
18. CNBC, "Anthropic closes $30 billion funding round at $380 billion valuation," February 12, 2026.
19. Broadcom Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Mar 4, 2026). Hock Tan stated: "I would rather not answer that, but we are okay."
20. Alphabet Q4 2025 earnings call, CFO Anat Ashkenazi depreciation guidance.