The SpaceX IPO splits the market into 4 trades that are already playing out · ProCap Insights

PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026

The SpaceX IPO splits the market into 4 trades that are already playing out

SpaceX prices a roughly 1.75 trillion dollar comp next week, re-rating the listed space economy and arming Starlink against terrestrial broadband.^1,2 The data points to two winners and two cable names bleeding the same subscribers AT&T just got downgraded over.³

The Setup1Y Return

RKLB

+331%

IRDM

+96%

CMCSA

-31%

CHTR

-66%

-16%

SPX

+27%

Key Takeaways

THE INVESTABLE EXPRESSION. Two SpaceX-IPO winners — Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Iridium (IRDM) — and two broadband losers, Charter (CHTR, 3.2x forward earnings) and Comcast (CMCSA). RKLB is up roughly 331 percent, the only scaled listed launch proxy.
THE NON-OBVIOUS CATALYST. Charter lost 120,000 broadband subscribers last quarter, double the 59,000 a year earlier, yet trades at 3.2x forward earnings. Amazon’s $11.6 billion Globalstar deal just re-rated Iridium’s globally licensed band.
THE FORWARD LOOK. SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut and 15-day Nasdaq-100 Fast Entry force passive flows into space comps while cable subscriber prints keep getting worse.

Exhibit 1: The SpaceX IPO already split the market a year before it priced

Total return, June 2025 to June 2026. Space-economy proxies versus cable broadband versus the S&P 500.

Bar chart of one-year total returns showing RKLB +331% and IRDM +96% versus CHTR -66% and CMCSA -31%

Source. yfinance daily adjusted closes, June 2025 to June 3, 2026.⁴

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The Analytical Framework

SpaceX is scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, raising roughly 75 billion dollars at a valuation near 1.75 trillion dollars.¹ A private company that size does two things to public markets the moment it prints a price.

First, it marks the entire listed space economy to a fresh public comparable, pulling passive and benchmark flows toward the handful of names that trade as proxies. Second, it hands Starlink the capital to widen its assault on terrestrial broadband.²

This framework starts from that split and runs in two directions. The winner side screens listed space and satellite names on one-year return, revenue growth, analyst breadth, and a direct structural link to a SpaceX public mark.^4,9

The loser side mirrors the June 3 AT&T downgrade. Oppenheimer cut AT&T to perform and warned that cable is in trouble and that new fiber builds halt within three years.³ The selection criteria isolate the broadband operators losing subscribers fastest while still carrying terminal-value multiples the data no longer supports.⁵

Two names were excluded after the data contradicted the theme. Globalstar was dropped because Amazon agreed to buy it for 90 dollars a share in cash, capping its upside as merger arbitrage rather than an IPO re-rate.⁶

AT&T itself stays off the list because it is the trigger, not the trade. All prices are as of June 3, 2026.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The Watchlist

Four names, two long the IPO re-rate and two exposed to the broadband share loss that downgraded AT&T. Conviction is highest on Rocket Lab and Charter, the cleanest expression on each side.

Company	Ticker	Price	Mkt Cap	Key Metric	Catalyst
Rocket Lab	RKLB	$115.16	$66.7B	+63.5% rev growth, $2.2B backlog	Neutron debut Q4 2026
Iridium	IRDM	$51.43	$5.4B	~53% EBITDA margin, owns MSS spectrum	NTN Direct commercial 2026
Charter	CHTR	$131.24	$18.5B	3.2x fwd P/E, -120K broadband Q1	Q2 print late July 2026
Comcast	CMCSA	$23.74	$84.9B	6.7x fwd P/E, -65K broadband Q1	Q2 print late July 2026

Source. yfinance quotes and company filings, as of June 3, 2026. Forward P/E from price divided by FY+1 consensus EPS.^4,5

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The Winners, Name by Name

Highest conviction long

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the only public stand-in for SpaceX

Rocket Lab is up roughly 331 percent over the past year, the single best performer in this group and the name institutions buy when they want launch exposure they cannot get from SpaceX.^4,9

First-quarter revenue grew 63.5 percent to 200 million dollars against a record 2.2 billion dollar backlog, and roughly 85 percent of covering analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, with no sell ratings on the tape.⁴

The SpaceX mark reframes the sector toward platform multiples, and the Neutron medium-lift debut in the fourth quarter is the hard catalyst. A pre-profit balance sheet is what disqualifies it if launch cadence slips.

Re-rate long

Iridium (IRDM) owns the scarce asset the market just learned to price

Iridium trades above its average analyst target, a sign the market is re-rating its globally licensed mobile satellite spectrum rather than its 2 percent revenue growth.⁴

It runs a profitable 66-satellite constellation at roughly a 53 percent EBITDA margin, and its standards-based NTN Direct service launches commercial NB-IoT direct-to-device messaging and connectivity for phones, autos and devices in late 2026.⁹

The Amazon-Globalstar deal validated the value of licensed satellite spectrum, and Iridium owns the directly comparable globally coordinated Big LEO L-band allocation that Amazon just paid for.⁶ Flat top-line growth is the risk if direct-to-device adoption stalls.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The Losers, Name by Name

Highest conviction avoid

Charter (CHTR) is the cleanest Starlink victim, not AT&T

Charter is down roughly 66 percent in a year and lost 120,000 broadband subscribers last quarter, more than double the 59,000 it lost a year earlier.^4,5

Broadband is roughly 40 percent of revenue, so subscriber erosion hits the profit engine directly, and three analysts now carry sell-equivalent ratings.⁴

At 3.2x forward earnings the stock looks cheap, but a falling-knife multiple on a shrinking sub base is a value trap. A return to broadband growth is what would disqualify the bear case.

Avoid

Comcast (CMCSA) is bleeding the same subscribers, more slowly

Comcast lost 65,000 broadband subscribers last quarter, an improvement from 183,000 a year earlier, but still negative and still pressured by satellite and fixed-wireless promotional pricing management acknowledged on the Q1 call.⁵

The stock is down roughly 31 percent over the year and trades at 6.7x forward earnings, a discount that reflects a broadband franchise the market expects to keep shrinking.⁴

Record mobile-line additions and price locks are slowing the bleed, which is the upside risk to the short. Sustained positive broadband net adds would break the thesis.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

Exhibit 2: The market is pricing two opposite futures for the same connectivity dollar

Price-to-sales, trailing twelve months. Space proxies priced for hypergrowth, cable for terminal decline.

Bar chart of price-to-sales: RKLB 98.0x, IRDM 6.2x, CMCSA 0.70x, CHTR 0.30x

Source. yfinance trailing price-to-sales, as of June 3, 2026.⁴

The Consensus and Where It Breaks

The consensus treats the SpaceX IPO as a one-name event, a chance to own the rocket company directly. That framing misses the second-order move that already happened in the comps.

Exhibit 2 shows the split in one metric. Rocket Lab trades at roughly 98 times sales while Charter trades at 0.30 times, a 320-fold gap between two companies that both sell connectivity.⁴

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The consensus also still anchors AT&T as the headline broadband loser. The Oppenheimer note that downgraded it said the opposite, that cable is more exposed and that AT&T carries less broadband risk than the cable operators.³

The subscriber data backs that. Cable, not the wireless carriers, is shedding broadband customers fastest, and fixed wireless plus Starlink are taking that share.⁵

Where consensus is right is on Comcast's relative resilience. Its loss rate improved sharply year over year, which is why it sits as the lower-conviction avoid rather than the lead short.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

Exhibit 3: Cable is still losing broadband subscribers every quarter

Net broadband subscriber additions, thousands. Negative bars are quarterly customer losses.

Grouped bar chart of cable broadband net adds: Charter -59K then -120K, Comcast -183K then -65K

Source. Charter and Comcast first-quarter 2026 results.⁵

The Counter-Argument

The strongest case against this list is that the selection criteria reward momentum and punish value at exactly the wrong moment. Rocket Lab at 98 times sales and Iridium above its target price are priced for outcomes that an IPO sentiment unwind could reverse fast.⁴

A sell-the-news reaction to the SpaceX debut is a real risk. The same passive flows that lift the comps on inclusion can reverse if SpaceX prices below its 1.75 trillion dollar mark, and Morningstar already values the company at 780 billion dollars, roughly 55 percent lower.^1,7

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

On the loser side, the bear case on cable assumes Starlink scales faster than capacity allows. Low-earth-orbit bandwidth is finite per cell, and Starlink served roughly 3 million US subscribers against Charter's 29.7 million Internet customers entering 2026.^2,5

That is the part the framework could be wrong about. Charter at 3.2x forward earnings is already priced for decline, so a single quarter of stabilized subscribers could trigger a violent re-rate higher, the mirror image of the value-trap thesis.⁴

The valuation math on the winners cuts both ways. Rocket Lab at 98 times sales is priced for flawless execution, and compression to even 60 times sales, still a premium to Iridium and the broader satellite group, would erase roughly 40 percent of the stock on the same revenue base. A soft SpaceX print near Morningstar's 780 billion dollar fair value, 55 percent below the 1.75 trillion dollar IPO mark, would supply exactly that de-rating trigger.^4,7

Comcast strengthens that objection. Its loss rate already improved from 183,000 to 65,000 in a year, and record mobile bundling is the lever that could turn cable broadband net adds positive before Starlink capacity scales.⁵

The counter does not break the thesis. It only narrows the catalyst window. The winners are a re-rate trade with a defined catalyst window, and the losers are structural, not cyclical, share donors.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

The Bottom Line

The SpaceX IPO splits into four distinct trades, not a single directional bet. The data points to Rocket Lab and Iridium as the highest-conviction re-rate winners and Charter as the cleanest broadband loser, with the June 12 debut and the late-July cable prints as the catalysts that decide all four.

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PROCAP INSIGHTS June 3, 2026 · SpaceX IPO

Sources

1. CNBC, “SpaceX (SPCX) IPO: Live updates,” May 20, 2026. Supports the June 12, 2026 SPCX Nasdaq listing, the $75 billion raise, the $1.75 trillion target valuation, and the 15-trading-day Nasdaq-100 Fast Entry path. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/spacex-ipo-live-updates.html
2. Broadband Breakfast, “Study: With 2.7 Million Subscribers, Starlink is a Top 10 U.S. ISP,” May 2026. Supports the approximate 3 million U.S. Starlink subscriber base referenced in the counter-argument. https://broadbandbreakfast.com/study-with-2-7-million-subscribers-starlink-is-a-top-10-u-s-isp/
3. CNBC, “AT&T downgraded ahead of SpaceX IPO on coming broadband competition from Starlink,” June 3, 2026. Supports the Oppenheimer / Timothy Horan downgrade of AT&T to Perform from Outperform and the “cable is in trouble” framing. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/att-downgraded-ahead-of-spacex-ipo-on-coming-broadband-competition-from-starlink.html
4. OpenBB Platform and Yahoo Finance, equity quotes, market capitalization, trailing price-to-sales, forward P/E (FY+1 mean EPS), one-year total return and analyst consensus, as of June 3, 2026. Supports all stock prices, market caps, multiples and one-year returns in the report. https://finance.yahoo.com/
5. Charter Communications, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, filed April 24, 2026 (29.56 million total Internet customers, 120,000 net loss in 1Q26, 59,000 net loss in 1Q25), and Comcast Corporation, Form 8-K for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, filed April 23, 2026 (65,000 residential broadband net loss in 1Q26 versus 183,000 in restated 1Q25). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001091667/000109166726000028/chtr-20260331.htm · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001166691/000162828026026685/ex991-3312026.htm
6. CNBC, “Amazon to buy Globalstar to bolster Leo satellite business in deal worth about $11.6 billion,” April 14, 2026, and Globalstar Form 8-K of the same date. Supports the $90.00 per share cash election and the $11.6 billion enterprise value used to validate the price of licensed mobile-satellite spectrum. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/amazon-globalstar-satellite-leo-internet.html
7. CNBC, “SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says,” June 3, 2026, and Morningstar research, “SpaceX’s IPO Filing: Big Spending, Big Losses.” Supports the $780 billion Morningstar fair-value estimate (roughly 55% below the $1.75 trillion IPO target) and SpaceX FY2025 results: $18.7 billion pro forma combined revenue (Space ~$4 billion, Starlink ~$11.4 billion, xAI ~$3.2 billion) and a $4.9 billion net loss, per the S-1. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html · https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacexs-ipo-filing-big-spending-big-losses
8. Rocket Lab Corporation, Form 8-K furnishing first-quarter 2026 results, filed May 7, 2026. Supports the $200.3 million record revenue (+63.5% YoY), the $2.2 billion backlog (+108% YoY), and the Q4 2026 Neutron debut target. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001819994/000181999426000027/rklb-05072026ex991.htm
9. Iridium Communications, “Iridium NTN Direct” product page and “On-Air Trials Underway: Iridium NTN Direct Prepares to Enter Beta as Testing Continues,” January 21, 2026, with Q1 2026 earnings disclosure of a 53.1% adjusted EBITDA margin and 66-satellite operating constellation. https://www.iridium.com/services/iridium-ntn-direct · https://investor.iridium.com/2026-01-21-On-Air-Trials-Underway-Iridium-NTN-Direct-Prepares-to-Enter-Beta-as-Testing-Continues

ProCap Insights is a research division of ProCap Financial. This report is for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and does not make buy, sell, or hold recommendations on any security. Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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