The Yield Curve Called a Recession That Hasn't Come. AI Capex Is a Signal It Can't See.

The bond market's favorite recession gauge flashed red for more than two years, and no recession has followed. AI-related investment supplied a fifth to two-fifths of US GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, depending on imports, and hyperscaler capex is guided to about $733 billion in 2026.